Theory of the Decades for Bordeaux Vintages - Chart from 1900 - 2024 -
Will the vintage 2005 confirm the Theory?
The end of February usually marks the end of the cold season, with the return of milder days, while night and morning are still cold). The temperatures gradually increase through March and April while the vine awakens from its winter sleep. This is the beginning of a new growth cycle when the vignerons finish pruning (removing the unwanted branches) and start working on the trellising to prepare the vine for the new vintage: the 2025 vintage.
Both producers and consumers expect a lot from 2025, as, in theory, the quality of Bordeaux vintages ending in “5” is usually excellent to outstanding. So, the question is: Will the 2025 vintage confirm this theory? It is too early to say, and the weather conditions over the next seven months will be crucial to determining the quality of this vintage.
You may wonder where this theory comes from and whether it is accurate. I have written extensively about it in two previous posts (if interested, you can read them here and here), but in short, it came from my grandfather.
As the grandson of a winemaker who grew up in the vineyards
of the Cotes de Bourg and Cotes de Blaye, northeast of Bordeaux, I spent most
of my vacations with my grandfather. He was a storyteller who always had
something interesting to say about his work in the vineyard and cellar. He was
also a great cook and a gardener. His house was like a farm, with all sorts of
animals, fruit trees, and vegetables. Almost everything he ate came from his farm,
garden, and orchard, and the rest came from the local village’s market.
Like all vignerons and farmers of his generation, he lived
with nature’s rhythm. He woke up every morning with the sound of the rooster.
He ate a proper meal for breakfast to have enough energy to work through the
morning before a quick lunch and a little siesta to continue working the whole
afternoon, tending all his animals, fruits and vegetables, and the vines, too.
He was a great man, and I loved him dearly. He taught me a lot and, without
realizing it, even influenced my path in the wine world.
He often spoke about the life cycles, the vegetative circles and phases of plants, the change in weather since the mid-80s, and the recurring patterns of the decades for wine vintages. He also accorded importance to previous generations' old proverbs and dictons (quotes and sayings) (*), proving the presence of recurring weather patterns and similarities over the years.
Comparing one decade to the next, he could see repetitions and similarities in the quality of the years and, thus, the vintages. That's how he started this theory, which states, in a broader sense, that years ending with the same number might be comparable and present similarities, to a certain extent, enabling him to predict the quality of the vintage. In his opinion, it was as if the life cycle and the quality of the vintages were rebooted recurringly every 10 years.
I was just a teenager then, and hearing him talk about this was fascinating. From then on, I paid more attention to the weather and the "proverbs and dictons" of the ancient generations who preceded my grandfathers.
A few years later, when I started working in restaurants as a waiter and later as a Sommelier, my passion and interest for wine led me to better understand and apply what he was trying to demonstrate in his theory by reading articles about vintage quality and studying vintage charts in specialized books and magazines.
It has been a controversial subject every time I mentioned it with chateau owners, producers, winemakers, and negociants alike. Sometimes triggering very strong reactions and denials.
It is perfectly understandable, as this theory does not work on a case-by-case basis. Because each producer, each vineyard, each appellation in Bordeaux (like anywhere else) has its own particularities: viticultural and winemaking practices, types of soils, types of climate and micro-climates, and other things influenced by diverse factors such as geology, topography, meteorology, reliefs, masses of water, exposure, climate changes, methodology, decisions, money, rules, laws, etc...
So, of course, you have to take this theory of the recurring quality of the vintages "with a grain of salt" and only consider it while keeping the whole region of Bordeaux in mind. It only works if you take the overall quality of the vintages for all the appellations combined.
Still not convinced? Well, let me develop the concept of this theory further.
I created the chart above based on various charts from specialized books and magazines. It considers the whole Bordeaux region based on each vintage's combined average scores, providing a visual that is easy to read and understand at one glance.
It is said that Bordeaux produces 3-5 great to good vintages per decade, and as you can see, more significantly within the last 50 years, within each decade, there seems to be a recurring pattern of the quality of the vintages:
- The years ending with 0, 5, and 9 are usually the best
- The ones ending with 6 and 8 are always great to very good
- The ones ending with 2 and 3 (except rare outstanding exemptions like 1982 and 2022, 1983, 2003, and 2023) are mostly good to fair
- The ones ending with 1, 4, and 7 are mainly fair to mediocre.
Now, can you see the recurring pattern this theory is all about? It is pretty evident to me, and it makes me wonder if the 2025 vintage will, once again, confirm this theory.
Cheers! Santé!
