Theory of the Decades for Bordeaux Vintages - Chart from 1900 - 2024 -
Will the 2025 vintage confirm the Theory?
Both producers and consumers expect a lot from 2025, as, in general (in my theory, I should say), the quality of Bordeaux vintages ending in “5” in the last 5 to 8 decades has been excellent to outstanding, as you can see in the table above: 1945, 1955, 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015 have recurringly been excellent.
So, the question is: Will the 2025 vintage confirm this theory? It is too early to say, and the weather conditions over the next seven months will be crucial to determining the quality of this vintage.
You may wonder where this theory originates and whether it is accurate or merely a far-fetched idea with no basis. Well, I have written extensively about it in two previous posts (if interested, you can read them here and here). However, in short, it originated from my grandfather.
As the grandson of a winemaker who grew up in the vineyards
of the Cotes de Bourg and Cotes de Blaye, northeast of Bordeaux, I spent most
of my vacations with my grandfather. He was a storyteller who always had
something interesting to say about his work in the vineyard and cellar. He was
also a great cook and a gardener. His house was like a farm, with all sorts of
animals, fruit trees, and vegetables. Almost everything he ate came from his farm,
garden, and orchard, and the rest came from the local village’s market.
Like all vignerons and farmers of his generation, he lived
with nature’s rhythm. He woke up every morning with the sound of the rooster.
He ate a proper meal for breakfast to have enough energy to work through the
morning, followed by a quick, yet substantial lunch and a little siesta, before continuing to work the whole afternoon, tending to all his animals, fruits, vegetables, and the vines, too.
He was a great man, and I loved him dearly. He taught me a great deal and, without realizing it, even influenced my path in the wine industry.
He often spoke about the life cycles, vegetative cycles, and phases of plants, as well as the weather and overall climate changes since the mid-80s, and the recurring cycles and patterns of decades for wine vintages.
He also accorded importance to previous generations' old proverbs and dictons (quotes and sayings) (*), a historic proof of the presence of recurring weather patterns, conditions, and similarities over the years and decades, way before his time.
This rich tradition of vigneron's proverbs and sayings reflects centuries of experience and wisdom gained from observing the weather and Mother Nature's repetitive cycles, as well as from tending vines and crafting wine. They reflect their profound connection to nature, the seasons, and the art of winemaking. These sayings offer wisdom on everything from the weather to the proper way to enjoy a glass of wine.
Many proverbs emphasize the weather and its influence on the harvest. For example, the saying "À la Saint-Vincent, l'hiver se reprend ou se rompt les dents" translates to "On St. Vincent's Day (January 22), winter either gets a second wind or breaks its teeth," suggesting that the weather on this day predicts the rest of the season. Another saying, "Janvier sec et beau, emplit caves et tonneaux," means "A dry and beautiful January fills cellars and barrels," indicating that dry winter weather bodes well for a good harvest. A pattern of morning fog, daytime heat, and a calm evening during the growing season is also seen as a sign of a good vintage: "Brouillard le matin, chaleur dans la journée ; le soir léger serein, font bonne vinée assurée."
Therefore, my grandfather did not invent anything; it was just part of the last generation that still believed and paid attention to these details (rare and few are the ones who do nowadays). Like many of his kind before him, he simply compared the years of one decade to the next and saw repetitions and similarities in the weather conditions and patterns, which impacted the quality of the vintages similarly. For example, most vintages ending in 5 are typically hot and dry, corresponding to solar years with ideal conditions to make a great vintage.
And that's how he began this theory, which, in a broader sense, suggests that years ending with the same number may be comparable and exhibit certain similarities, allowing him (and/or any vignerons with a similar belief) to predict the quality of the vintage to some extent.
In his opinion, these similarities and recurring patterns were as if the life cycle and the quality of the vintages were rebooted recurrently every 10 years.
If each decade had a recurring life cycle, the years ending in 0, 5, and 9 would typically be the warmest, with the most favorable weather and pattern conditions, resulting in an excellent or outstanding vintage. The years ending in 6 and 8 are typically great to very good. In contrast, the remaining ones would be variable, yet also recurring enough to conclude that those ending in 2 and 3 are usually good to fair, and those ending in 1, 4, and 7 are generally fair to mediocre.
Interestingly, this theory also confirms the adage that Bordeaux produces approximately five "good" vintages per decade, which can be considered a reasonable rule of thumb. And we can verify it over the past 5 decades:
- 1980s: 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1989
- 1990s: 1990, 1995, 1996, 1998
- 2000s: 2000, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009
- 2010s: 2010, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019
- 2020s: 2020, 2022, 2025(?)
Interesting, isn't it?
Back in the 1980s, I was just a teenager, and hearing him talk about this was fascinating. From then on, I paid more attention to the weather and the "proverbs and dictons" of the ancient generations who preceded my grandfathers.
A few years later, when I started working in restaurants as a waiter and later as a Sommelier, my passion and interest for wine led me to better understand and apply what he was trying to demonstrate in his theory by reading articles about vintage quality and studying vintage charts in specialized books and magazines.
It has been a controversial subject every time I mentioned it with chateau owners, producers, winemakers, and negociants alike. Sometimes triggering very strong reactions and denials.
It is perfectly understandable, as this theory does not work on a case-by-case basis. Because each producer, each vineyard, each appellation in Bordeaux (like anywhere else) has its own particularities: viticultural and winemaking practices, types of soils, types of climate and micro-climates, and other things influenced by diverse factors such as geology, topography, meteorology, reliefs, masses of water, exposure, climate changes, methodology, decisions, money, rules, restrictions, laws, etc...
So, of course, you have to take this theory of the recurring quality of the vintages "with a grain of salt" and only consider it while keeping the whole region of Bordeaux in mind. It only works if you take the overall quality of the vintages for all the appellations combined. You cannot apply it per appellation, for example.
Still not convinced? Let me elaborate on the concept of this theory. Let's review the table or chart below again, and I'm sure it will help you understand what I'm trying to say.
I created the chart above based on various charts from specialized books and magazines. It considers the entire Bordeaux region (as a whole) based on the combined average scores for each vintage, providing a visual that is easy to read and understand at a glance.
As mentioned above, the adage says that Bordeaux produces 3-5 great to good vintages per decade, and as you can see, more significantly within the last 50 years, within each decade, there seems to be a recurring pattern of the quality of the vintages:
- The years ending with 0, 5, and 9 are usually the best
- The ones ending with 6 and 8 are always great to very good
- The ones ending with 2 and 3 (except rare outstanding exemptions like 1982 and 2022, 1983, 2003, and 2023) are mostly good to fair
- The ones ending with 1, 4, and 7 are mainly fair to mediocre.
Now, can you see the recurring pattern this theory is all about? It is pretty evident to me, and it makes me wonder if the 2025 vintage will, once again, confirm this theory.
Cheers! Santé!
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